Remaking the Middle East

I thought it might be interesting to explore visually what a Mideast newly-divided along sectarian lines might look like. This exercise follows the general theory I've mentioned in other posts, which asserts that the US and Israel have a common goal in redrawing the map of the region into sectarian mini-states in order to ensure military dominance and control of resources well into the future. And to place the Jewish state squarely in a context friendly to its exercise of 'sectarian democracy'.

I've already said more than enough about that theory in previous posts, and I've given some pro and con arguments. I'll just add here that Israel's desire to break up Lebanon and gain control of its south is well-documented and goes back to the founding of the Israeli state. In addition, the Israeli idea that 'Jordan is Palestine' has a long history, and was asserted in my presence some 30 years ago by none other than Ariel Sharon.

The weakness of the theory, if there is one, is on the question of the degree of US/Israeli collusion. To what degree are the two countries seeking the same outcome? How long have they been doing so? How effective has this collaboration been over time and multiple governments in both countries? For analysis of these questions I would refer readers to Jonathan Cook's book mentioned in an earlier post, to the writings of Robert Fisk, and to Noam Chomsky.

That said, here's a map of the current borders in the Mideast:

Mideast political, click to enlarge

And here's a notional version of what the area might look like following the transformation that already appears to be underway in more than one country:

Mideast post-partition, click to enlarge

My 'notional map' requires some comment. First of all, the new 'borders' make no pretense to more than approximate accuracy. In any case, none of the new lines can be closely predicted, since nowhere in the Mideast is demarcation of sectarian/communal boundaries clear and straightforward. Tragically, there's every reason to believe that most or all will be drawn in blood, at least at the outset. This, of course is what is currently happening in Iraq and Syria, and what has been happening on and off in Lebanon since 1975.

Some other points:

• Syria could break up in any number of ways. Jonathan Cook, citing Israeli and US neocon planners, supposes two Sunni areas - Aleppo in the north and Damascus (Sham) in the south. I've followed this approach.
• Equally, Lebanon - already functionally divided into zones in all but name - could be redrawn in multiple ways. The core realities are probably: Sunni Tripoli united with Beirut, the Christian and Druze mountain heartlands in some form of alliance, Alawi areas in the north likely joined to the Syrian Alawi coast, the Shia' south probably under some form of Israeli control. Israel has sought this for decades, due to the presence of important water resources.
• Egypt divided into Muslim and Christian mini-states seems rather unlikely at the moment. However, it does constitute part of the plan, so I've included it
• Jordan-Palestine becomes the fulfillment of Ariel Sharon's claim that 'Jordan is Palestine', and provides a venue for the final 'dumping' of all Palestinian refugees in a new 'homeland'. Israeli leaders since Ben Gurion have proposed forcing the Palestinians across the Jordan river into Jordan.
• Saudi Arabia's eastern province is largely Shia'. Similarly (or oppositely), a large area of southern Iran is ethnically Arab. Both these areas are traditionally what journalists like to call 'restive'. Conveniently, they are both oil-rich. Breaking them away would open them to more effective outside dominance and control of those resources.

As I type this I have an uncanny sensation: this must have been what Sykes, Picot, Balfour and all the rest felt like (and, in fairness, regional leaders were often party to this process). Sit at a table, discuss matters of state and economics, draw lines on maps, voila! Break for dinner. Unfortunately, for the peoples of the region, the costs over the last 100 years or so have been incalculable. There isn't a single bullet point above that doesn't come with an enormous pricetag in lives and misery.